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| #43069 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 30.Aug.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT KATRINA HAS SHEARED APART...WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE NOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER OVER NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THERE ARE NO OFFICIAL REPORTS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS UNOFFICIAL REPORTS OF 50-55 KT GUSTS OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. BASED ON THIS...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE RISING TO 981 MB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT. THE CENTER OF KATRINA ISA A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION OF 015/16. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. KATRINA WILL BE STEERED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES... WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 12 HR BUT IS OTHERWISE JUST AN UPDATE. KATRINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER 36 HR IS A REFLECTION OF THE INCREASED FORWARD MOTION...NOT EXTRATROPICAL RE-INTENSIFICATION. EVEN THROUGH THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF STRONG INLAND WINDS WILL REMAIN FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF LIFE DUE TO FALLING TREES. INLAND FLOODING AND TORNADOES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 34.7N 88.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 37.2N 86.7W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 31/0600Z 40.3N 82.8W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 31/1800Z 43.7N 77.0W 30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 01/0600Z 47.5N 71.4W 30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 02/0600Z 53.0N 68.5W 30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
