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| #43536 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:23 AM 01.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2005 LATEST SATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AND THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST IS PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE WEST AND SEPARATE ITSELF FROM THE SYSTEM...THEREBY REDUCING THE SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE ARE GIVING CONFLICTING SIGNALS...WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING STEADY STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL INDICATE SLOW STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHTER SHEAR AND WARMER WATER SHOULD PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...TAKING THE SYSTEM TO 55 KT AT 120 HOURS WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE 86 KT SHIPS IS FORECASTING AT THAT TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 50W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE PRESENCE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BEYOND 72 HOURS AS THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE EAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS MODEL BEYOND 48 HOURS. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 19.0N 46.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 19.6N 48.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 20.4N 50.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 21.2N 52.3W 40 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 22.1N 54.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 24.0N 57.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 26.5N 59.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 06/1200Z 31.0N 60.5W 55 KT |
