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| #4358 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:12 PM 11.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004 DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN OSCILLATING AROUND 992 AND 993 MB. FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WIND WAS 76 KNOTS WITH A SMALL CLOSED EYEWALL OF 8 N MI. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS. SINCE THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED...THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND THE FACT THAT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS MODELS. THE GFDL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES CHARLEY A 106-KNOT HURRICANE AS IT CROSSES WESTERN CUBA. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON AS A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 17.8N 78.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 19.6N 80.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 22.5N 82.3W 85 KT...NEARING CUBA 36HR VT 13/1200Z 25.5N 82.5W 90 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 14/0000Z 29.5N 81.5W 50 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 15/0000Z 38.0N 77.5W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 16/0000Z 46.5N 68.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 17/0000Z 51.5N 53.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
