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| #43580 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:20 PM 01.Sep.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2005 THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEFINING THE CENTER. THE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS MORE TYPICAL OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT BECAUSE THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER...IT IS OPTED TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A 30-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE DEPRESSION MAY BE A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM SO IT SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 32.4N 51.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 32.9N 51.7W 25 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 34.0N 52.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 03/0600Z 35.5N 52.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 03/1800Z 37.5N 52.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
