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| #43623 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 01.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2005 THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION... WITH JUST A VERY LIMITED AREA OF -70C CLOUD TOPS TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE NO GREATER THAN 2.0... AND THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 N MI TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO IMPOSE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT IS IMPEDING ANY STRENGTHENING... AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR...ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO. THE PROSPECTS FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE THEREFORE LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND THE GFS EVEN FORECASTS DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONE... THE SHIPS FORECASTS WEAK SHEAR AND INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND ANTICIPATES SLIGHTLY LESS STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10... A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT OR EAST THAN EARLIER. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...THE EXPECTATION OF A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM...AND A BIT OF AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERHIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 20.4N 47.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 21.2N 48.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 22.4N 50.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 23.9N 51.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 25.5N 53.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 55.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z 31.5N 56.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 07/0000Z 34.0N 56.5W 50 KT |
