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| #4368 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:58 AM 12.Aug.2004) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 ...BONNIE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM WEST OF DESTIN WESTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT BONNIE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BONNIE HAS BEEN ON A WEAKENING TREND DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IF THIS PERSISTS THE HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING COULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN APALACHEE BAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH BONNIE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...27.7 N... 88.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER JARVINEN |
