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| #437537 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 29.Jun.2011) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011 400 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011 ...ARLENE CONTINUES HEADING TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 96.1W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ARLENE COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS...VERACRUZ...EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI...AND EASTERN NUEVO LEON...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BEVEN |
