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| #437584 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:52 PM 29.Jun.2011) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011 700 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEARING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 95.8W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTHWARD FROM PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA AND FROM PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST. ARLENE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 4 MPH...7 KM/H. HOWEVER...A WESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS...VERACRUZ...EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI...AND EASTERN NUEVO LEON...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH COULD MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN |
