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| #437609 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 29.Jun.2011) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011 ...ARLENE APPROACHING THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 96.1W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA AND FROM PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. TAMPICO MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH...74 KM/H....IN A RAIN BAND. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE LIKELY REACHED PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN |
