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| #437707 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 30.Jun.2011) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011 1000 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT ISLA LOBOS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ARLENE HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO. THE STATION REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 993 MB AS THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE NORTH...AND BASED ON THIS AND A JUST-RECEIVED AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT. SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THE VORTEX IS TILTED SOUTHWARD WITH HEIGHT...AS THE APPARENT CENTER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SOUTH OF THE CENTER LOCATION INDICATED BY THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ARLENE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FITS AND STARTS...WITH AN OVERALL MOTION OF 270/6. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE U. S. SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO IN 24-36 HR. ARLENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER EASTERN MEXICO...WITH THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO BY 36 HR. SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO IN 24-48 HR...WHICH MOVES WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF ARLENE OR A NEW SYSTEM IS SPECULATIVE AT THIS TIME. EITHER WAY...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EXPECTED PATH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 21.6N 97.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 21.4N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 01/1200Z 21.2N 100.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
