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| #43848 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 03.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005 THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AND ROUND CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. AT 12Z...T-NUMBERS ONLY SUPPORTED 45 KNOTS...BUT SINCE THEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED AND THE LATEST QUIKSCAT SHOWS A FEW 50-KNOT WIND VECTORS. THEREFORE...NITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER WARM WATERS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LOW ...AND STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MODEST INTENSIFICATION SUGGESTED BY SHIPS AND THE AGGRESSIVE GFDL WHICH BRINGS MARIA TO 100 KNOTS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE FASTER...ABOUT 13 KNOTS...BETWEEN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE...AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MARIA ON A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...MARIA SHOULD ALREADY BE APPROACHING THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAS CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT MARIA NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT 12-FOOT SEAS ARE EXTENDING OUTWARD MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND THE RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 25.1N 53.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 55.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 56.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 30.5N 57.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 32.0N 57.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 34.5N 57.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 36.5N 57.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 08/1200Z 38.0N 52.9W 60 KT |
