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| #43943 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 04.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005 THE INNER CORE CONVECTION OF MARIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AS REVEALED IN CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 03/2333Z SSMI OVERPASS AND A 04/0152Z AMSU OVERPASS BOTH INDICATED NEARLY CLOSED EYEWALL FEATURES...AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEPTH AND ORGANIZATION SINCE THEN...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER. A T4.0/65 SATELLITE ESTIMATE WAS PROVIDED BY BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ODT VALUES RANGE BETWEEN T4.3 TO T4.5. THEREFORE...MARIA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/12. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 34N LATITUDE. AFTER MARIA REACHES THE RIDGE AXIS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...GRADUAL RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...MORE RAPID MOTION IS FORECAST AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST AND ACCELERATES MARIA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND MARIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C FOR THE NEXT 36-42 HOURS. AS A RESULT...SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SMALL INNER CORE WIND FIELD AND EYE NOTED IN MICROWAVE DATA...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MARIA REACHING 90 KT. BY 48 HOURS...THOUGH...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER STEADILY COOLER WATER WHILE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT STEADY WEAKENING. BY 96 HOURS...MUCH COOLER WATER AND INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 28.0N 55.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 29.5N 55.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 31.6N 56.6W 75 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 33.4N 56.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 06/0600Z 35.2N 55.9W 75 KT 72HR VT 07/0600Z 38.7N 51.8W 65 KT 96HR VT 08/0600Z 41.0N 47.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 09/0600Z 42.5N 42.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
