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| #44058 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 04.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005 LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MARIA HAS BEEN EVIDENT THIS EVENING... AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE T4.5/77 KT... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT. MARIA STILL HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE THE HURRICANE REMAINS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WIND SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AS MARIA MOVES FARTHER NORTH SHOULD INCREASE THE SHEAR AND BRING ON GRADUAL WEAKENING... UNTIL THE HURRICANE REACHES COOLER WATERS AND LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/11... WHICH IS JUST A BIT TO THE LEFT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY. THIS ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A COUPLE OF PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS... ON CONTINUITY... AND ON FOLLOWING THE CENTROID OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN GOES IR IMAGERY SINCE AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE SINCE JUST BEFORE SUNSET. IT ALSO SEEMS THAT VERY RECENTLY MARIA HAS BEEN MOVING MORE SLOWLY... SO THE ADVISORY POSITION COULD BE A FEW MILES TOO FAST. EVEN THOUGH IT MIGHT BE STARTING A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED... A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SHOULD OCCUR AS MARIA GRADUALLY BENDS TO THE NORTH AROUND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE MARIA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED AFTER MARIA EMERGES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MARIA COULD REMAIN A FAIRLY VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 31.0N 56.9W 75 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 32.4N 57.1W 80 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 33.9N 56.7W 85 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 35.4N 55.8W 80 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 36.7N 54.3W 75 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 39.0N 50.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 09/0000Z 41.5N 45.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/0000Z 44.0N 38.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
