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| #44174 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:31 PM 05.Sep.2005) TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005 2100Z MON SEP 05 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 67.5W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 67.5W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 67.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 27.8N 67.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.9N 68.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.3N 70.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 31.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 32.0N 70.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 67.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z FORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH |
