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| #442546 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 18.Jul.2011) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 77.3W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 77.3W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 77.5W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 28.2N 77.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.2N 76.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 30.2N 75.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 31.4N 74.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.5N 70.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 36.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 38.5N 58.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 77.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
