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| #442575 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:43 PM 18.Jul.2011) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 200 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011 ...BRET CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 77.3W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. BRET IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BRET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE NEW INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY OF BRET LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...BRET COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS BRET BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. SURF...LOCALLY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHERN AND WESTERN FACING BEACHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
