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| #442612 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 18.Jul.2011) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 2100 UTC MON JUL 18 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 77.0W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 77.0W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 77.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.2N 76.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.4N 75.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 31.5N 74.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 33.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.5N 67.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 39.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 43.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 77.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
