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| #442913 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 19.Jul.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011 BRET HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE SINCE THE LAST HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION. THE CYCLONE STILL CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. IN FACT...IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AROUND 0000 UTC...AND THE INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS CORROBORATED BY A TAFB DATA-T ESTIMATE OF T3.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT WILL BE INVESTIGATING THE STORM IN A FEW HOURS TO ASSESS IF THERE HAVE BEEN ANY CHANGES. STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING BRET...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS OPEN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION INTO A TROUGH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THEREFORE DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS. BRET APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY SLOWED DOWN BUT SHOULD RESUME A MOTION OF 040 DEGREES AT 7 KT SHORTLY. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 30.6N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 31.5N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 32.8N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 34.2N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 35.8N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG |
