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| #443109 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 20.Jul.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011 500 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED NORTH OF BERMUDA YESTERDAY HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION TO BE CONSIDERED A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS...AND THUS THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM CINDY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A 35-KT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT CIRA AMSU ESTIMATE OF 41 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/22. CINDY IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH ITS LIFETIME. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CINDY WILL PASS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 24-26C FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING AS SHOWN IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER MUCH COLDER WATER AND INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE WESTERLIES...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. CINDY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 96 HR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 35.2N 53.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 37.1N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 39.9N 46.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 42.4N 42.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 22/1800Z 45.4N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1800Z 52.5N 25.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
