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| #443179 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 20.Jul.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011 1100 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011 CINDY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE OR SATELLITE PRESENTATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A TIMELY 0058 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 40-45 KT VECTORS IN A GENERALLY CONVECTION-FREE REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. CINDY IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 20-25 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A 2302 UTC SSMIS PASS INDICATED THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. CINDY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SAME STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BE CAUSING TROPICAL STORM BRET TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD... AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/21. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND CINDY WILL CONTINUE ON A QUICK NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS LIFE. THE GFDL APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND SHOWS A SHARP NORTHWARD TURN JUST AFTER 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE GFS. THIS TRACK IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM AS CINDY REMAINS OVER WATER OF AT LEAST 24C. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COLDER WATER. THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD OPEN UP BY 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PREDICTS DISSIPATION BY THAT TIME. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS LOWERED TO 1004 MB BASED ON DRIFTING BUOY 44943...WHICH CROSSED THE PATH OF CINDY AND REPORTED A WELL- CALIBRATED PRESSURE OF 1007.3 A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 36.3N 51.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 38.5N 48.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 41.3N 44.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 44.0N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/0000Z 46.8N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG |
