Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #443322 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 21.Jul.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 1100 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011 WHILE BRET CONTINUES TO GENERATE A STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SOUTH OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY LOSING ORGANIZATION AS IT REMAINS AFFECTED BY NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS NO RECENT DATA FROM NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER... TROPICAL-STORM WINDS COULD STILL BE OCCURRING IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION BASED ON A 1-MINUTE WIND OF 33 KT RECENTLY OBSERVED AT BUOY 41048. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/8. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. BRET SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL IT DISSIPATES...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THAT TIME. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BRET IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS COMBINATION IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 33.8N 70.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 35.0N 69.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 36.8N 66.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 38.6N 62.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
