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| #443403 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 21.Jul.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011 500 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011 SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT CINDY HAS BEEN TRYING TO FORM AN EYEWALL. A CLEAR SPOT HAS BEEN APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NEVER WRAPPED AROUND IT ENOUGH TO CALL IT AN EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...AND A RECENT CIRA AMSU ESTIMATE WAS 49 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST- NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION. CINDY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HR AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 42.3N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 44.5N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 47.9N 36.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/0600Z 51.6N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/1800Z 55.0N 22.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
