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| #443404 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 21.Jul.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 500 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011 THE CENTER OF BRET REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION. AN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1500 UTC SHOWED AN AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS AND THE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 35-40 KT...AND THIS IS ADVECTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BRET WEAKENING TO A TROUGH IN 48 HR OR LESS...AND THEREFORE THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AT 060/9. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING. BRET SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL IT DISSIPATES...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THAT TIME. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 34.2N 69.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 35.5N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 37.3N 63.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 39.0N 59.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
