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| #443478 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 21.Jul.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 1100 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011 THE SYSTEM LOST ESSENTIALLY ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION SEVERAL HOURS AGO...AND IT IS ESTIMATED THAT BRET HAS NOW WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH STRONG SHEAR AND COOLING WATERS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS OF BRET...THE SYSTEM COULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS MUCH SOONER THAN THAT. BRET HAS ACCELERATED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/12...PERHAPS A LITTLE FASTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN THE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 35.6N 68.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 36.9N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 38.4N 61.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 40.0N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
