Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #443481 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 21.Jul.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011 1100 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011 CINDY HAS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINED A TIGHT INNER CORE OF SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS INDICATED BY THE GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO WARM. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS ANALYZED BASED UPON THE TAFB DVORAK CI OF 3.0 AND A 22Z AMSU CIMSS ESTIMATE OF 39 KT. THE MICROWAVE PASSES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL NOT UNDERGO AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. INSTEAD...IT APPEARS THAT CINDY WILL LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT A DAY OR SOONER DUE TO PASSING OVER QUITE COLD SSTS AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THOUGH NOT SHOWING AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS NEW TO THIS ADVISORY. THE TROPICAL STORM IS QUICKLY CONTINUING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 23 KT...AS IT IS BEING ADVECTED AROUND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THAT ISSUED PREVIOUSLY. THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY BASED UPON A CIRA AMSU SIZE ESTIMATE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 43.5N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 45.9N 39.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 49.5N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/1200Z 53.5N 26.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH |
