Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #443623 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 22.Jul.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011 1100 AM AST FRI JUL 22 2011 CINDY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CLOUD PATTERN CHARACTERISTIC OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY LOSING ORGANIZATION AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/23. ALL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CINDY SHOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT 25-30 KT UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CINDY IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR TO THE EAST OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGESTS THAT CINDY WILL NOT MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MAKE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT COOL TO LESS THAN 15C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON JUST-RECEIVED ASCAT DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 45.5N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 47.6N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 50.6N 25.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 53.2N 17.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
