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| #443729 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 22.Jul.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011 500 PM AST FRI JUL 22 2011 THE COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC ARE NOW HAVING A NOTICEABLE EFFECT ON CINDY. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED...WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION NOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE CIRCULATION ARE BECOMING STRATIFORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON DECREASING AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB. CINDY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOUR...AND THE CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY AFTER 24 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/25...AND A RAPID MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 46.9N 34.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 49.5N 28.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 53.5N 20.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
