Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #44519 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 07.Sep.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RAGGED EYE THIS MORNING...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AVERAGE ABOUT 70 KT. THEREFORE...NATE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY. THE SYSTEM HAS FAIRLY WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...AND SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVELY STRONG. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ABOVE THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA. INITIAL MOTION IS NOT DEFINITIVE...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID IN TURNING NATE TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BASED ON THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER... THIS IS NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...NATE COULD STILL MOVE VERY NEAR OVER BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THAT ISLAND. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 29.2N 66.2W 70 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 29.5N 66.1W 75 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 30.4N 65.2W 80 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 31.6N 63.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 33.1N 59.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 36.0N 50.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/1200Z 39.0N 40.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/1200Z 43.0N 29.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
