Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #44559 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:31 PM 07.Sep.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 THERE HAS BEEN NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO REPORT. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER... THERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 996 MB BUT WINDS REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS. OPHELIA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRACTICALLY KEEPS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MEANDERING WITHIN AN AREA OF ABOUT 100 NAUTICAL MILES FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM WATER IN THIS AREA...BUT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THEN DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. DUE TO THIS VARIABILITY...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. MODELS CONTINUE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK. THE GFS WHICH LOOPED THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE WEST IN THE PREVIOUS RUN...IS NOW SHOWING A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NOGAPS WHICH EARLIER TURN OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM FLORIDA IS BRINGING THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE U.S. COAST. THE GFDL STUBBORNLY INSISTS ON A TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE STORY GOES ON AND ON. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE THE LUXURY OF MAKING SUCH LARGE CHANGES IN TRACK EVERY SIX HOUR...THE BEST OPTION FOR WEAK STEERING CURRENT SCENARIOS IS TO MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION OF THE CONSENSUS. ALL INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 28.9N 79.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 29.1N 79.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 29.5N 80.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 09/0600Z 30.0N 80.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 30.3N 80.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 10/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 11/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 12/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W 70 KT |
