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| #44560 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:31 PM 07.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA WITH HINTS OF AN EYE TRYING TO REDEVELOP. HOWEVER...SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 70 KT...THOUGH THE CYCLONE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER AS EVIDENCED BY A RECENT AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 976 MB FROM CIMSS. THE HURRICANE HAS CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND A SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE WEAKENING MIGHT BE A BIT SLOWER THAN A TYPICAL TROPICAL SYSTEM BECAUSE OF MARIA SLOWLY ACQUIRING EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THIS HURRICANE TO BE A LARGE POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER A BRIEF MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... MARIA HAS RESUMED A MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR ABOUT 045/12 KT. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MARIA IS MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT NORTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH A LITTLE ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DROP WEST OF THE CYCLONE IN THE 2 TO 3 DAY TIMEFRAME AND PULL MARIA MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT A BIT SLOWER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AND NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 36.9N 50.4W 70 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 37.9N 49.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 08/1800Z 39.4N 46.8W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/0600Z 40.8N 44.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/1800Z 42.5N 42.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/1800Z 46.5N 38.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/1800Z 52.0N 33.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/1800Z 58.0N 31.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
