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| #446583 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:37 PM 01.Aug.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 730 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011 DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOW THAT A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FINALLY FORMED NEAR THE ISLAND OF DOMINICA...MARKING THE FORMATION OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF AROUND 45 KT IN DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. AS EVIDENCED BY THE AMOUNT OF TIME IT TOOK THIS SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A SINGLE CENTER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 50 PERCENT OR LESS AS SEEN IN THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN ASSUMES THAT EMILY WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HISPANIOLA IN 48 HOURS OR SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...IF EMILY SURVIVES THE INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN ON THE ISLAND...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS BY DAY 5. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION IN 2 OR 3 DAYS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 275/15. EMILY IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW EMILY TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN A LITTLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON WHAT SHAPE EMILY IS IN AFTER IT MOVES PAST HISPANIOLA AND HOW MUCH THE RIDGE RE-BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A WEAKER CYCLONE FARTHEST TO THE WEST SHOWING A TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE THE GFDL AND THE NEW 18Z GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT WITH A TRACK NEAR OR EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION AND LIES CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT 250 MILES AT 5 DAYS. GIVEN THE FORECAST PARTICULARS...A VARIETY OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. NOTE...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE STANDARD 0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL THE THE FULL ADVISORY ISSUED AT 0300 UTC/1100 PM AST/EDT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2330Z 15.2N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 15.6N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 16.5N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 17.4N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 18.4N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1800Z 21.0N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 05/1800Z 24.0N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 26.0N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
