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#446644 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 01.Aug.2011)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
0300 UTC TUE AUG 02 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 62.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 62.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 62.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.9N 64.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.8N 67.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.8N 69.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.9N 71.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.0N 75.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 25.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 27.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 62.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN