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| #446665 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:40 AM 02.Aug.2011) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 200 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011 ...EMILY MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 63.5W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA * HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY...AND APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES LATER TODAY...AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...AND IN HAITI BY WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
