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| #446695 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 AM 02.Aug.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 500 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EMILY INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS ONLY SLIGHT EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES...AND SINCE THE CENTER LOCATION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED INTO THE DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. CONSEQUENTLY... OBTAINING A RELIABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATE VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS PROBLEMATIC. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY AROUND 1200 UTC AND SHOULD GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. RADIOSONDE DATA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN STATIONS SHOW SOME UNFAVORABLE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 300 MB JUST BELOW THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LEVEL. MOREOVER...AS NOTED EARLIER...SOME DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF EMILY. IN A FEW DAYS...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THESE LARGE-SCALE FACTORS...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN EMILY TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING INTERRUPTED BY THE INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA...BUT NO LONGER BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR MOST RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL LGEM. SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 280/14. THE STORM SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR A DAY OR SO. AS A TROUGH JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WEAKENS THE RIDGE...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST...WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF A DEEPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A MUCH MORE WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE SHALLOW VORTEX OR TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EMILY WILL BE AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 15.5N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 16.2N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 17.0N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 17.8N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/0600Z 22.5N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 06/0600Z 26.0N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 30.0N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
