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| #446700 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 02.Aug.2011) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 0900 UTC TUE AUG 02 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA * HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 64.0W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 64.0W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 63.4W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.2N 66.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.0N 68.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.8N 70.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 73.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.5N 76.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 26.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 30.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 64.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
