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| #446746 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 02.Aug.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011 ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SO FAR... WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER AND FAIR UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EMILY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS AROUND 1007 MB... AND WINDS ARE LIGHT OR VARIABLE ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS NO LONGER DEVELOP EMILY...AND IN FACT...BOTH MODELS BASICALLY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE NEAR HISPANIOLA. FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS BEEN MEANDERING AND MAY BE REORGANIZING NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TODAY. A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE EMILY ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH THEREAFTER. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 15.3N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 15.7N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 16.5N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 17.5N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 19.0N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1200Z 22.5N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 06/1200Z 26.5N 78.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 30.0N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
