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| #446748 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 02.Aug.2011) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 63.6W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 63.6W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 63.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.7N 66.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 5SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.5N 68.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N 73.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.5N 76.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 26.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 30.0N 78.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 63.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
