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| #446826 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 02.Aug.2011) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 2100 UTC TUE AUG 02 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 65.4W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 65.4W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 64.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.2N 66.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.3N 68.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 70.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.5N 72.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 45SE 0SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 28.0N 78.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 32.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 65.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
