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| #446909 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 02.Aug.2011) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011 ...EMILY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO APPROACH HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 66.7W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES HISPANIOLA...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM ...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI ON WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
