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| #446992 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 03.Aug.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 500 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH SINCE YESTERDAY. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT AND THE HIGHEST SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS WERE 42 KT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE THAT ABOUT 15 KT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS WHICH INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS TILTED EASTWARD WITH HEIGHT. ALSO...CENTER FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WERE VERY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES HISPANIOLA. NORTH OF THAT ISLAND...THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAT LOOKS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREDICTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 2 TO 5 DAYS IS CONSERVATIVE... HOWEVER...AS IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW SEVERELY EMILY WILL BE DISRUPTED BY ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE VERY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/12. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THIS ADVISORY. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EMILY SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES. IN GENERAL...THE TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT SHIFTED CLOSER TO FLORIDA ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO TO THE LATEST ECMWF PREDICTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN THE MODELS AROUND DAY 3 AND BEYOND...SO THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THAT TIME FRAME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 16.5N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 17.3N 69.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 19.0N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 20.7N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 05/0600Z 22.5N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 26.5N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 30.0N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 33.5N 74.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
