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| #447098 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:52 PM 03.Aug.2011) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 200 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011 ...EMILY STILL MOVING WESTWARD...APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED..... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 70.3W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE VERY NEAR OR OVER CABO BEATA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE TODAY...OVER HAITI TONIGHT...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING EMILY AND WILL GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE WESTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD NOW BE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN COAST...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
