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| #447142 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 PM 03.Aug.2011) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 500 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011 ...EMILY CONTINUES WESTWARD...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 71.0W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI EARLY THURSDAY AND THEN OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE THE CENTER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD NOW BE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN COAST...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...AND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
