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| #447143 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 PM 03.Aug.2011) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 2100 UTC WED AUG 03 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 71.0W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 71.0W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 70.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 74.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 76.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 45SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.5N 77.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.0N 78.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 25SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 31.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 71.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
