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| #447145 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 03.Aug.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 500 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011 SOME DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON... AND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY IN EMILY INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KNOTS...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. WIND SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...BUT GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. BY THEN...EMILY SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE NORTHWEST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET...WITH EMILY STILL MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. SO FAR MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD BIAS. EVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS STILL REFORMS THE CYCLONE NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND THEN EASTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 16.9N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 17.5N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.5N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 21.5N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 23.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 78.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 31.0N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
