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| #447160 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:34 PM 03.Aug.2011) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 800 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011 ...EMILY STALLS...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 70.6W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO FRANCIS VIEJO SOUTHEASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST. EMILY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 14 MPH...22 KM/H IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI EARLY THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
