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| #447279 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 AM 04.Aug.2011) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 0900 UTC THU AUG 04 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 71.7W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 71.7W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 71.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.9N 72.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 74.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 76.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.7N 77.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 32.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 36.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 71.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN |
