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| #447283 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 04.Aug.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 500 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011 DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT EMILY IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...AND IT IS VERY WEAK ABOVE 700 MB. THE JET DATA INDICATED 300 MB WINDS BLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA...AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS PRODUCING VERY STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION...THE AIR FORCE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 45 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAD TO ABORT ITS MISSION DUE TO AVIONICS PROBLEMS. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE MOVE AGAIN...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/6. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THAT EMILY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR DUE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...AS THE 00Z RUNS HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHIFT EASTWARD DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND SINCE THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS NOT YET MATERIALIZED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FROM 12-48 HR. AFTER 72 HR...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS EMILY TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CUBA WILL EVOLVE INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO THE NORTH OF EMILY. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MODERATE SHEAR OVER EMILY. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE STORM...AND LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IS YET ANOTHER NEGATIVE FACTOR. DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES...THE SHIPS... LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS ALL FORECAST STRENGTHENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HR DUE TO SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION...AND THEN CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH 96 HR SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII DO NOT REQUIRE A WATCH FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. IF EMILY DOES NOT BEGIN ITS NORTHWESTWARD TURN SOON...A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 17.3N 71.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 17.9N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 20.0N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 22.5N 76.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 24.7N 77.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 28.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 32.5N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 36.0N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
