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| #447362 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 04.Aug.2011) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 200 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011 ...MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA TAKING A TOLL ON EMILY...CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 72.8W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO...AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCIS TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM WEST OF SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EMILY IS LOSING ORGANIZATION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM. AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...EMILY...OR ITS REMNANTS...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI LATER TODAY AND MOVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND EMILY COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND OVER SOUTHERN HAITI. IF EMILY SURVIVES ITS PASSAGE OVER HAITI...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WOULD REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SATURDAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...AND 2 TO 4 FEET WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
