Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2024 season is officially over after a brutal number of landfals, a stunning rampup in the back-half and a record-early Cat 5.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 54 (Milton) , Major: 54 (Milton) Florida - Any: 54 (Milton) Major: 54 (Milton)
 
Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#44775 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 08.Sep.2005)
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

DEEP CONVECTION IS PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA WITH AN
EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. AMSU AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT. MARIA HAS RETAINED
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS A LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...CUT OFF
FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES... AND CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS
DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SUGGEST THE SYSTEM COULD POSSIBLY DELAY FULL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FOR A DAY OR SO. AFTER A SLOW WEAKENING
OVER 23-25C WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS... THE CYCLONE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO REINTENSIFY INTO A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WITH
WINDS OF HURRICANE-FORCE BECAUSE OF ENERGY FROM A BAROCLINIC
TROUGH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...ESTIMATED AT
045/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM EARLIER
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK
THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE LONGER-TERM FORECAST
IS HOW MUCH OF A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE
AN UPPER TROUGH LEAVING SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BETWEEN CONU AND THE GFS SHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH THIS TROUGH
AND...CONSQUENTLY...A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SOUTH OF ICELAND.
WIND RADII FORECASTS ARE BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL.

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 39.5N 46.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 40.5N 45.2W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 09/1800Z 42.0N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 10/0600Z 44.0N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 10/1800Z 46.0N 38.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/1800Z 53.0N 35.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/1800Z 59.0N 32.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1800Z 63.0N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL