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| #447866 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 06.Aug.2011) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 500 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS...AND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS OF EMILY HAVE REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ALBEIT A WEAK AND RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED ONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR...AND EMILY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS...IF AT ALL...UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS OVER OPEN WATERS AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES. AFTER 36 HOURS...EMILY SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING AND BE ABSORBED BY A MID- LATITUDE FRONTAL WAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...NORTH AT 7 KT...IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TODAY. EMILY IS CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT IS BECOMES STEERED BY THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA THROUGH THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ITS FORECAST MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 26.9N 78.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 27.9N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 29.9N 75.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 31.6N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 33.6N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
